Context · Business model
Local / omnichannel
Physical locations, offline conversion, and geography as the natural unit.
What changes here
The same four questions, and what each one runs into in this context.
Attribution
Online-to-offline linkage is weak, and most of the conversion is invisible to any tracking you own.
Incrementality
The strongest case for geo designs, because the market genuinely is the unit. Outcome measurement is the hard part, not assignment.
Allocation
Store capacity and catchment area cap what any budget can produce, whatever the response curve says.
Decisioning
Local inventory and staffing constrain the action set, so a policy that ignores them is unexecutable.
Written for this context
Incrementality
- Planned
When Randomization Is Impossible
Difference-in-differences, synthetic control, and interrupted time series: what each one assumes, and the diagnostic that would falsify it.